World Economic Outlook October 2014

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781498331555

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 222

View: 1798

Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014-15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately. Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies' growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies
Posted in Business & Economics

World Economic Outlook, October 2014:

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484380665

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 242

View: 8780

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.
Posted in Business & Economics

World Economic Outlook, October 2014: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 149838501X

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 236

View: 657

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.
Posted in Business & Economics

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014

Staying the Course

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484392302

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 110

View: 5876

Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.
Posted in Business & Economics

Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2014

Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498302327

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 120

View: 9367

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.
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World Economic Outlook, October 1986

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1455290971

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 119

View: 5334

This paper highlights that economic developments in the first half of 1986 were disappointing in a number of respects. Despite the stimulus from lower interest rates and lower oil prices, the pace of activity in the industrial countries slowed. This contributed to continuing sluggishness in the growth of world trade and a further weakening of primary commodity prices. Falling export earnings in developing countries worsened the outlook for the restoration of generalized creditworthiness and for the resumption of a satisfactory growth performance.
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Fiscal Monitor, October 2014

Back to Work: How Fiscal Policy Can Help

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498342205

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 112

View: 4040

At a time when job creation tops the policy agenda globally, this issue of the Fiscal Monitor explores if and how fiscal policy can do more for jobs. It finds that while fiscal policy cannot substitute for comprehensive reforms, it can support job creation in a number of ways. First, deficit reduction can be designed and timed to minimize negative effects on employment. Second, fiscal policy can facilitate structural reforms in the labor market by offsetting their potential short term costs. And third, targeted fiscal measures, including labor tax cuts, can help tackle challenges in specific segments of the labor market, such as youth and older workers.
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Global Financial Stability Report, October 2014:

Risk Taking, Liquidity, and Shadow Banking: Curbing Excess while Promoting Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1498390056

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 192

View: 8541

The October 2014 issue finds that six years after the start of the crisis, the global economic recovery continues to rely heavily on accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies. Monetary accommodation remains critical in supporting economies by encouraging economic risk taking in the form of increased real spending by households and greater willingness to invest and hire by businesses. However, prolonged monetary ease may also encourage excessive financial risk taking. Analytical chapters examine (1) the growth of shadow banking around the globe, assessing risks and discussing regulatory responses, and calling for a more encompassing (macroprudential) approach to regulation and for enhanced data provision; and (2) how conflicts of interest among bank managers, shareholders, and debt holders can lead to excessive bank risk taking from society’s point of view, finding no clear relation between bank risk and the level of executive compensation, but that a better alignment of bankers’ pay with long-term outcomes is associated with less risk.
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Republic of Poland: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484344197

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 66

View: 9378

KEY ISSUES Background: Poland’s strong fundamentals and sound policies helped it to successfully withstand several bouts of market turbulence and paved the way for economic recovery. While Poland has benefited from its continued transformation into a more open and dynamic economy, its substantial trade and financial linkages with global markets, combined with still-large financing needs, also make it vulnerable to external shocks. Outlook and risks: With only modest growth in its trading partners, economic activity in Poland is expected to remain moderate in the near term. Risks remain tilted to the downside amid concerns about a protracted slowdown in the euro area, continued geopolitical tensions in the region, and uncertainty surrounding normalization of monetary policy in the United States. Domestically, the risk of continued disinflation remains high. Flexible Credit Line (FCL): Against this background, the authorities are requesting a new two-year precautionary FCL arrangement with proposed lower access in the amount of SDR 15.5 billion (918 percent of quota) and cancellation of the current arrangement, approved on January 18, 2013. Poland’s improved economic fundamentals and increased policy buffers have reduced financing needs. However, external risks remain elevated. In this context, the authorities consider that a new FCL in the requested amount would provide an important insurance against external risks, help sustain market confidence, and support their economic strategy. At the same time, the authorities consider that the substantial reduction in access sends a clear signal of their intention to fully exit from the FCL once external risks recede. In staff’s view, Poland continues to meet the qualification criteria for access under the FCL arrangement. Fund liquidity: The impact of the proposed commitment of SDR 15.5 billion on Fund liquidity would be manageable. Process: An informal meeting to consult with the Executive Board on a possible FCL arrangement for Poland was held on December 19, 2014.
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World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Transitions and Tensions

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484385896

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 247

View: 5689

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
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World Economic Outlook, October 2016

Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1475539967

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 288

View: 5531

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
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Emerging Market Volatility

Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay,Mr.Vivek B. Arora,Mr.Athanasios V Arvanitis,Mr.Hamid Faruqee,Mr.Papa N'Diaye,Mr.Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484356004

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 29

View: 5583

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
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East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2014

Enhancing Competitiveness in an Uncertain World

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

ISBN: 1464804303

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 165

View: 3520

In China, growth will gradually moderate, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, and place the economy on a more sustainable growth path. In the rest of the region, growth will pick up, as exports firm in line with strengthening global activity, and the impact of domestic adjustment in large ASEAN countries eases. Significant uncertainties remain about the sustainability of the global recovery, and global financial conditions are likely to tighten. The short-term priority in several countries is to address the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies created by an extended period of loose financial conditions and fiscal stimulus. In China, the authorities need to strike a balance between containing growing risks from rising leverage and meeting the indicative growth targets. Over the longer term, the focus in most countries must be on structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness. The report’s special section focuses on education & skills development; international migration; and the policy priorities for the Pacific Island Countries.
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South Africa: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Statement; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1475569149

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 93

View: 6738

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s growth has slowed in recent years, specifically relative to other emerging markets. Although weak trading partners’ growth contributed to the slowdown, increasingly binding structural constraints, such as protracted strikes and electricity constraints, have been important factors. Unemployment remains high at 25.5 percent. Notwithstanding expenditure discipline, the general government budget deficit was 4.5 percent of GDP in 2013, and public debt rose to 45 percent of GDP from 27 percent in 2008. The outlook is lackluster with considerable risks. Growth is projected to slow to 1.4 percent in 2014 and rebound only modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improved industrial relations.
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Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?

Author: Mr. Nicolas E. Magud,Sebastian Sosa

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1475534248

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 31

View: 1789

We document that (i) although private investment growth in emerging markets has decelerated in recent years, it came down from cyclical highs and remains close to pre-crisis trends; and (ii) investment-to-output ratios generally remain close to or above historical averages. We show that investment is positively related to expect future profitability, cash flows and debt flows, and negatively associated with leverage. Critically, it is also positively related to (country-specific) commodity export prices and capital inflows. Lower commodity export prices and expected profitability, a moderation in capital inflows, and increased leverage account for the bulk of the recent investment deceleration.
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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa: Keeping the Pace

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484350952

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 126

View: 2823

The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in the region, as well as the major risks to the outlook. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.
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Youth Unemployment in Advanced Economies in Europe: Searching for Solutions

Author: Angana Banerji,Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs,Ms. Hannah Huidan Lin,Mr. Rodolphe Blavy

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484330064

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 31

View: 1699

The SDN will assess the youth unemployment problem in advanced European countries, with a special focus on the euro area. It will document the main trends in youth and adult unemployment in 22 European countries before and after the global financial crisis. It will identify the main drivers of youth and adult unemployment, focusing in particular on the role of the business cycle and structural characteristics of the labor market. It will outline the main elements of a comprehensive strategy to address the problem.
Posted in Business & Economics

Can Abenomics Succeed?

Overcoming the Legacy of Japan's Lost Decades

Author: Dennis P. J. Botman,Mr. Stephan Danninger,Mr. Jerald Alan Schiff

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484352203

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 201

View: 5082

Japan’s revitalization plan, dubbed the “three arrows of Abenomics,” devises a three-pronged strategy—combining fiscal, monetary, and structural policies—to overcome that country's apparent inability to sustain economic recovery. This book is the first comprehensive assessment of Abenomics and the reforms needed to make it a success, including aggressive monetary easing, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, and structural and financial sector reforms.
Posted in Business & Economics

World Economic Outlook, October 2017

Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

ISBN: 1484321146

Category: Business & Economics

Page: N.A

View: 6272

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.
Posted in Business & Economics