The Theory that Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: Yale University Press

ISBN: 0300175094

Category: Mathematics

Page: 335

View: 4871

Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
Posted in Mathematics

The Theory that Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9780300188226

Category: Mathematics

Page: 336

View: 4690

"Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time."--
Posted in Mathematics

Prometheans in the Lab

Chemistry and the Making of the Modern World

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

ISBN: 9780071407953

Category: Science

Page: 243

View: 3905

Newton, Darwin, Pasteur, Einstein and other great physicists and biologists are household names, but the great chemists have received little recognition. Yet it could be argued that chemistry, more than any other scientific discipline, has made the modern world possible, largely through products that we take for granted. In the style of the biology classic, The Microbe Hunters, acclaimed science writer Sharon Bertsch McGrayne tells the history of the chemical revolution through the lives of the men who created it. We don't recognize their names, but their legacy is all around us. Before Nicholas LeBlanc discovered the chemical process for making washing soda in the early 1800s, soap was a highly taxed luxury item, and now it's something we use many times everyday without a second thought. Without chemical fertilizer there might have been worldwide starvation in the mid 1900s. Even something as simple as affordable dyes, which brought bright colorful clothing to the masses and democratized fashion, is given full attention. An even-handed account, Prometheans in the Lab describes not only the upside of each pivotal discovery, but also the oftentimes devastating unforeseen effects the
Posted in Science

Fortune's Formula

The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

Author: William Poundstone

Publisher: Hill and Wang

ISBN: 9780374707088

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 400

View: 8394

In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.
Posted in Business & Economics

The Life and Times of the Central Limit Theorem

Author: William J. Adams

Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.

ISBN: 0821848992

Category: Mathematics

Page: 195

View: 9756

About the First Edition: The study of any topic becomes more meaningful if one also studies the historical development that resulted in the final theorem. ... This is an excellent book on mathematics in the making. --Philip Peak, The Mathematics Teacher, May, 1975 I find the book very interesting. It contains valuable information and useful references. It can be recommended not only to historians of science and mathematics but also to students of probability and statistics. --Wei-Ching Chang, Historica Mathematica, August, 1976 In the months since I wrote ... I have read it from cover to cover at least once and perused it here and there a number of times. I still find it a very interesting and worthwhile contribution to the history of probability and statistics. --Churchill Eisenhart, past president of the American Statistical Association, in a letter to the author, February 3, 1975 The name Central Limit Theorem covers a wide variety of results involving the determination of necessary and sufficient conditions under which sums of independent random variables, suitably standardized, have cumulative distribution functions close to the Gaussian distribution. As the name Central Limit Theorem suggests, it is a centerpiece of probability theory which also carries over to statistics. Part One of The Life and Times of the Central Limit Theorem, Second Edition traces its fascinating history from seeds sown by Jacob Bernoulli to use of integrals of $\exp (x^2)$ as an approximation tool, the development of the theory of errors of observation, problems in mathematical astronomy, the emergence of the hypothesis of elementary errors, the fundamental work of Laplace, and the emergence of an abstract Central Limit Theorem through the work of Chebyshev, Markov and Lyapunov. This closes the classical period of the life of the Central Limit Theorem, 1713-1901. The second part of the book includes papers by Feller and Le Cam, as well as comments by Doob, Trotter, and Pollard, describing the modern history of the Central Limit Theorem (1920-1937), in particular through contributions of Lindeberg, Cramer, Levy, and Feller. The Appendix to the book contains four fundamental papers by Lyapunov on the Central Limit Theorem, made available in English for the first time.
Posted in Mathematics

A History of Inverse Probability

From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson

Author: Andrew I. Dale

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 1468404156

Category: Mathematics

Page: 495

View: 651

It is thought as necessary to write a Preface before a Book, as it is judged civil, when you invite a Friend to Dinner, to proffer him a Glass of Hock beforehand for a Whet. John Arbuthnot, from the preface to his translation of Huygens's "De Ratiociniis in Ludo Alooe". Prompted by an awareness of the importance of Bayesian ideas in modern statistical theory and practice, I decided some years ago to undertake a study of the development and growth of such ideas. At the time it seemed appropriate to begin such an investigation with an examination of Bayes's Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances and Laplace's Theorie analytique des probabilites, and then to pass swiftly on to a brief consideration of other nineteenth century works before turning to what would be the main topic of the treatise, videlicet the rise of Bayesian statis tics from the 1950's to the present day. It soon became apparent, however, that the amount of Bayesian work published was such that a thorough investigation of the topic up to the 1980's would require several volumes - and also run the risk of incurring the wrath of extant authors whose writings would no doubt be misrepre sented, or at least be so described. It seemed wise, therefore, to restrict the period and the subject under study in some way, and I decided to con centrate my attention on inverse probability from Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson.
Posted in Mathematics

Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking

Author: Stephen K. Campbell

Publisher: Courier Corporation

ISBN: 0486140512

Category: Mathematics

Page: 208

View: 6756

Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayes' Rule

A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Analysis

Author: James V. Stone

Publisher: Sebtel Press

ISBN: 0956372848

Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory

Page: 170

View: 5433

In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.
Posted in Bayesian statistical decision theory

Biocentrism

How Life and Consciousness Are the Keys to Understanding the True Nature of the Universe

Author: Robert Lanza,Bob Berman

Publisher: BenBella Books

ISBN: 1935251740

Category: Science

Page: 213

View: 5493

Building on quantum physics, Biocentrism turns the planet upside down with the revolutionary view that life creates the universe rather than the other way around. The central claim of Biocentrism is that what is referred to as space and time are forms of animal perception rather than external physical objects. Lanza and Berman take readers on a fascinating journey through a foreign universe - our own - that will alter their perception of reality for ever.
Posted in Science

The Beginning of Infinity

Explanations that Transform The World

Author: David Deutsch

Publisher: Penguin UK

ISBN: 0141969695

Category: Science

Page: 496

View: 9403

A bold and all-embracing exploration of the nature and progress of knowledge from one of today's great thinkers. Throughout history, mankind has struggled to understand life's mysteries, from the mundane to the seemingly miraculous. In this important new book, David Deutsch, an award-winning pioneer in the field of quantum computation, argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe. They have unlimited scope and power to cause change, and the quest to improve them is the basic regulating principle not only of science but of all successful human endeavor. This stream of ever improving explanations has infinite reach, according to Deutsch: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper boundary to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve. In his previous book, The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch describe the four deepest strands of existing knowledge-the theories of evolution, quantum physics, knowledge, and computation-arguing jointly they reveal a unified fabric of reality. In this new book, he applies that worldview to a wide range of issues and unsolved problems, from creativity and free will to the origin and future of the human species. Filled with startling new conclusions about human choice, optimism, scientific explanation, and the evolution of culture, The Beginning of Infinity is a groundbreaking book that will become a classic of its kind.
Posted in Science

Probability Theory

The Logic of Science

Author: E. T. Jaynes

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139435167

Category: Science

Page: N.A

View: 3272

The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of probability theory to a wide variety of problems in physics, mathematics, economics, chemistry and biology. It contains many exercises and problems, and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. The material is aimed at readers who are already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher. The book will be of interest to scientists working in any area where inference from incomplete information is necessary.
Posted in Science

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't

Author: Nate Silver

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0143125087

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 534

View: 5044

The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.
Posted in Business & Economics

A Theory of Justice

Author: John RAWLS

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674042603

Category: Philosophy

Page: 623

View: 2413

Though the revised edition of A Theory of Justice, published in 1999, is the definitive statement of Rawls's view, so much of the extensive literature on Rawls's theory refers to the first edition. This reissue makes the first edition once again available for scholars and serious students of Rawls's work.
Posted in Philosophy

Conjectures and Refutations

The Growth of Scientific Knowledge

Author: Karl Popper

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135971374

Category: Philosophy

Page: 608

View: 398

Conjectures and Refutations is one of Karl Popper's most wide-ranging and popular works, notable not only for its acute insight into the way scientific knowledge grows, but also for applying those insights to politics and to history. It provides one of the clearest and most accessible statements of the fundamental idea that guided his work: not only our knowledge, but our aims and our standards, grow through an unending process of trial and error.
Posted in Philosophy

The Theory That Changed Everything

"On the Origin of Species" as a Work in Progress

Author: Philip Lieberman

Publisher: Columbia University Press

ISBN: 0231545916

Category: Science

Page: 210

View: 1183

Few people have done as much to change how we view the world as Charles Darwin. Yet On the Origin of Species is more cited than read, and parts of it are even considered outdated. In some ways, it has been consigned to the nineteenth century. In The Theory That Changed Everything, the renowned cognitive scientist Philip Lieberman demonstrates that there is no better guide to the world’s living—and still evolving—things than Darwin and that the phenomena he observed are still being explored at the frontiers of science. In an exploration that ranges from Darwin’s transformative trip aboard the Beagle to Lieberman’s own sojourns in the remotest regions of the Himalayas, this book relates fresh, contemporary findings to the major concepts of Darwinian theory, which transcends natural selection. Drawing on his own research into the evolution of human linguistic and cognitive abilities, Lieberman explains the paths that adapted human anatomy to language. He demystifies the role of recently identified transcriptional and epigenetic factors encoded in DNA, explaining how nineteenth-century Swedish famines alternating with years of plenty caused survivors’ grandchildren to die many years short of their life expectancy. Lieberman is equally at home decoding supermarket shelves and climbing with the Sherpas as he discusses how natural selection explains features from lactose tolerance to ease of breathing at Himalayan altitudes. With conversational clarity and memorable examples, Lieberman relates the insights that led to groundbreaking discoveries in both Darwin’s time and our own while asking provocative questions about what Darwin would have made of controversial issues today, such as GMOs, endangered species, and the God question.
Posted in Science

Bayesian Statistics

An Introduction

Author: Peter M. Lee

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118359771

Category: Mathematics

Page: 488

View: 4551

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines priorbeliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posteriorbeliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasingemphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such asvariational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximateBayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo(RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which theBayesian approach to statistics develops as well as how itcontrasts with the conventional approach. The theory is built upstep by step, and important notions such as sufficiency are broughtout of a discussion of the salient features of specificexamples. This edition: Includes expanded coverage of Gibbs sampling, including morenumerical examples and treatments of OpenBUGS, R2WinBUGS andR2OpenBUGS. Presents significant new material on recent techniques such asBayesian importance sampling, variational Bayes, ApproximateBayesian Computation (ABC) and Reversible Jump Markov Chain MonteCarlo (RJMCMC). Provides extensive examples throughout the book to complementthe theory presented. Accompanied by a supporting website featuring new material andsolutions. More and more students are realizing that they need to learnBayesian statistics to meet their academic and professional goals.This book is best suited for use as a main text in courses onBayesian statistics for third and fourth year undergraduates andpostgraduate students.
Posted in Mathematics

Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Author: William M. Bolstad,James M. Curran

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118593227

Category: Mathematics

Page: 624

View: 7616

"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.
Posted in Mathematics

Charles and Emma

The Darwins' Leap of Faith

Author: Deborah Heiligman

Publisher: Henry Holt and Company (BYR)

ISBN: 9781429934954

Category: Young Adult Nonfiction

Page: 272

View: 5665

Charles Darwin published The Origin of Species, his revolutionary tract on evolution and the fundamental ideas involved, in 1859. Nearly 150 years later, the theory of evolution continues to create tension between the scientific and religious communities. Challenges about teaching the theory of evolution in schools occur annually all over the country. This same debate raged within Darwin himself, and played an important part in his marriage: his wife, Emma, was quite religious, and her faith gave Charles a lot to think about as he worked on a theory that continues to spark intense debates. Deborah Heiligman's new biography of Charles Darwin is a thought-provoking account of the man behind evolutionary theory: how his personal life affected his work and vice versa. The end result is an engaging exploration of history, science, and religion for young readers. Charles and Emma is a 2009 National Book Award Finalist for Young People's Literature.
Posted in Young Adult Nonfiction

The Theory That Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: MACMILLAN HEINEMANN

ISBN: N.A

Category:

Page: 335

View: 3936

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 yearsΓÇöat the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
Posted in

The Airmen Who Would Not Die

Author: John G. Fuller

Publisher: BookBaby

ISBN: 1483518809

Category: Body, Mind & Spirit

Page: 340

View: 9325

Stranger and even more compelling than his best-selling Ghost of Flight 401, journalist John G. Fuller turns his talents to the historic crash of the great British dirigible R 101, the luxury lighter-than-air behemoth that was to revolutionize travel in the 1930's. Two days after the crash, through a séance, the dead commander of the airship recounted in horrible detail the anguished end of the R 101 and its crew. According to Charles H. Gibbs-Smith formerly Lindbergh Professor of Aerospace History, National Air and Space Museum (Smithsonian Institution) "This book had to be written...It will become a prime source for evidence of human survival after death." The complex and absolutely spell-binding tale begins in 1928 when a monoplane carrying famed World War I ace Captain Raymond Hinchliffe and his copilot, the flamboyant heiress-actress Elsie Mackay, vanishes without a trace over the stormy Atlantic. As news of the disappearance makes front-page headlines around the world, British workers race to complete the largest and most advanced airship yet designed, the monumental R 101. Neither medium Eileen Garrett's terrifying pre-vision of a dirigible tragedy, nor an even more fearful warning from the dead Captain Hinchliffe to another mystic, Mrs. Earl, are held as grounds for delaying the much-publicized takeoff of the R 101 for India. Finally, in a séance that includes both women and the world-famous author Conan Doyle (creator of Sherlock Holmes), Hinchliffe warns the navigator of the R 101 of its various structural problems. Despite these warnings, the 777-foot R 101 takes off on schedule -- and plunges to the ground on the French side of the Channel, killing all but six of the fifty-four aboard. But the disaster does not mark the end of his mind-boggling tale. Bristling with suspense and astonishing evidence concerning the validity of psychic phenomena, THE AIRMEN WHO WOULD NOT DIE is a riveting account of a human tragedy and the superhuman events surrounding it.
Posted in Body, Mind & Spirit