The Lady Tasting Tea

How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century

Author: David Salsburg

Publisher: Henry Holt and Company

ISBN: 1466801786

Category: Mathematics

Page: 352

View: 6236

At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a lady states that tea poured into milk tastes differently than that of milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one guest, by the name Ronald Aylmer Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the lady's hypothesis. There was no better person to conduct such a test. For Fisher had brought to the field of statistics an emphasis on controlling the methods for obtaining data and the importance of interpretation. He knew that how the data was gathered and applied was as important as the data themselves. In The Lady Tasting Tea, readers will encounter not only Ronald Fisher's theories (and their repercussions), but the ideas of dozens of men and women whose revolutionary work affects our everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, author David Salsburg traces the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories, explores W. Edwards Deming's statistical methods of quality control (which rebuilt postwar Japan's economy), and relates the story of Stella Cunliff's early work on the capacity of small beer casks at the Guinness brewing factory. The Lady Tasting Tea is not a book of dry facts and figures, but the history of great individuals who dared to look at the world in a new way.
Posted in Mathematics

GAMMA

Eulers Konstante, Primzahlstrände und die Riemannsche Vermutung

Author: Julian Havil

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3540484965

Category: Mathematics

Page: 302

View: 1027

Jeder kennt p = 3,14159..., viele kennen e = 2,71828..., einige i. Und dann? Die "viertwichtigste" Konstante ist die Eulersche Zahl g = 0,5772156... - benannt nach dem genialen Leonhard Euler (1707-1783). Bis heute ist unbekannt, ob g eine rationale Zahl ist. Das Buch lotet die "obskure" Konstante aus. Die Reise beginnt mit Logarithmen und der harmonischen Reihe. Es folgen Zeta-Funktionen und Eulers wunderbare Identität, Bernoulli-Zahlen, Madelungsche Konstanten, Fettfinger in Wörterbüchern, elende mathematische Würmer und Jeeps in der Wüste. Besser kann man nicht über Mathematik schreiben. Was Julian Havil dazu zu sagen hat, ist spektakulär.
Posted in Mathematics

Evidenzbasierte Jurisprudenz

Methoden empirischer Forschung und ihr Erkenntniswert für das Recht am Beispiel des Gesellschaftsrechts

Author: Hanjo Hamann

Publisher: Mohr Siebeck

ISBN: 9783161533228

Category: Law

Page: 414

View: 885

English summary: How do jurists obtain knowledge over the living environment which they regulate? Experience is an important source of knowledge, but the complex, connected information of society also increasingly requires an empirical study of law, and yet, the methods of empirical investigation are not so easy to manage and their results are not as easy to interpret as one might wish. For this reason, Hanjo Hamann discusses the principles of quantitative-empirical study and connects the critical reflection of empirical cognitive possibilities with specific epistemological interests of jurisprudence. What emerges from this method is a pragmatic theory of reception, which according to the example of evidence-based medicine, places particular value on so-called meta-studies. The author tests its practical uses for the basic empirical assumptions of the collegial principles of company law which arises from its dogmatic and legally comparative analysis. For his dissertation, Hanjo Hamann was awarded the Dissertation Prize of the Esche Schumann Commichau Foundation, the Telekom Prize for Civil Law of the University of Bonn as well as the Otto Hahn Medal of the Max Planck Society. German description: Wie gewinnen Juristen ihr Wissen uber die Lebenswelt, die sie regeln? Erfahrung ist eine wichtige Erkenntnisquelle, aber die komplex vernetzte Wissensgesellschaft erfordert zunehmend auch empirische Rechtsforschung. Dabei sind die Methoden empirischer Forschung gar nicht so leicht zu handhaben und ihre Ergebnisse nicht so einfach zu interpretieren, wie man annehmen mochte. Hanjo Hamann erortert deshalb die Grundlagen quantitativ-empirischen Forschens und verbindet die kritische Reflexion empirischer Erkenntnismoglichkeiten mit spezifisch juristischen Erkenntnisinteressen. Daraus entsteht eine pragmatische Rezeptionslehre, die nach dem Vorbild der "evidenzbasierten Medizin" besonderen Wert auf sogenannten Metastudien legt. Deren praktischen Nutzen erprobt der Autor vor allem an den empirischen Grundannahmen des gesellschaftsrechtlichen "Kollegialprinzips," die sich aus dessen dogmatischer und rechtsvergleichender Analyse ergeben. Hanjo Hamann erhielt fur seine Dissertation den Dissertationspreis der Esche Schumann Commichau Stiftung, den Telekom-Preis fur Zivilrecht der Universitat Bonn sowie die Otto-Hahn-Medaille der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft.
Posted in Law

Mathematical Statistics for Applied Econometrics

Author: Charles B Moss

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1466594101

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 363

View: 1766

An Introductory Econometrics Text Mathematical Statistics for Applied Econometrics covers the basics of statistical inference in support of a subsequent course on classical econometrics. The book shows students how mathematical statistics concepts form the basis of econometric formulations. It also helps them think about statistics as more than a toolbox of techniques. Uses Computer Systems to Simplify Computation The text explores the unifying themes involved in quantifying sample information to make inferences. After developing the necessary probability theory, it presents the concepts of estimation, such as convergence, point estimators, confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. The text then shifts from a general development of mathematical statistics to focus on applications particularly popular in economics. It delves into matrix analysis, linear models, and nonlinear econometric techniques. Students Understand the Reasons for the Results Avoiding a cookbook approach to econometrics, this textbook develops students’ theoretical understanding of statistical tools and econometric applications. It provides them with the foundation for further econometric studies.
Posted in Business & Economics

Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (Ars Conjectandi)

Author: Jakob Bernoulli

Publisher: Wentworth Press

ISBN: 9780270072112

Category:

Page: 170

View: 8952

This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Posted in

Errors, Blunders and Lies

How to Tell the Difference

Author: David Salsburg

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781498795784

Category: Errors, Scientific

Page: 154

View: 2046

We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Errorbecause even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley's examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
Posted in Errors, Scientific

Statistical Analysis of Designed Experiments

Theory and Applications

Author: Ajit C. Tamhane

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118491432

Category: Science

Page: 720

View: 1469

A indispensable guide to understanding and designing modern experiments The tools and techniques of Design of Experiments (DOE) allow researchers to successfully collect, analyze, and interpret data across a wide array of disciplines. Statistical Analysis of Designed Experiments provides a modern and balanced treatment of DOE methodology with thorough coverage of the underlying theory and standard designs of experiments, guiding the reader through applications to research in various fields such as engineering, medicine, business, and the social sciences. The book supplies a foundation for the subject, beginning with basic concepts of DOE and a review of elementary normal theory statistical methods. Subsequent chapters present a uniform, model-based approach to DOE. Each design is presented in a comprehensive format and is accompanied by a motivating example, discussion of the applicability of the design, and a model for its analysis using statistical methods such as graphical plots, analysis of variance (ANOVA), confidence intervals, and hypothesis tests. Numerous theoretical and applied exercises are provided in each chapter, and answers to selected exercises are included at the end of the book. An appendix features three case studies that illustrate the challenges often encountered in real-world experiments, such as randomization, unbalanced data, and outliers. Minitab® software is used to perform analyses throughout the book, and an accompanying FTP site houses additional exercises and data sets. With its breadth of real-world examples and accessible treatment of both theory and applications, Statistical Analysis of Designed Experiments is a valuable book for experimental design courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an indispensable reference for practicing statisticians, engineers, and scientists who would like to further their knowledge of DOE.
Posted in Science

Pascal, Fermat und die Berechnung des Glücks

eine Reise in die Geschichte der Mathematik

Author: Keith J. Devlin

Publisher: C.H.Beck

ISBN: 9783406590993

Category: Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie - Geschichte

Page: 204

View: 8303

Der Autor stellt die Entstehung der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und den damit verbundenen Wandel des menschlichen Alltagslebens dar.
Posted in Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie - Geschichte

Interpretation in Social Life, Social Science, and Marketing

Author: John O'Shaughnessy

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1135202249

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 236

View: 1738

'Interpretation' is used as an umbrella for bringing together a wide range of concepts and developments in the philosophy of social science that provide the foundation for clear thinking about social phenomena. In his new book, John O’Shaughnessy familiarises the reader with the nature of interpretation and its importance in social life, decision making in social science enquiries and consumer marketing, thus offering a multidisciplinary approach to problems of bias and uncertainty. Thus, this book is novel in its outlook and comprehensive in its approach. Whereas past studies in interpretation have focused on hermeneutical methods, O’Shaughnessy goes further considering the role of interpretation in social interactions, in undertaking scientific work, in the use of statistics, in causal analysis, in consumer evaluations of products and artifacts and in interpreting problematic situations together with the corresponding biases arising from emotional happiness and the concepts employed.
Posted in Business & Economics

Modeling Techniques in Predictive Analytics with Python and R

A Guide to Data Science

Author: Thomas W. Miller

Publisher: FT Press

ISBN: 013389214X

Category: Computers

Page: 448

View: 5316

Master predictive analytics, from start to finish Start with strategy and management Master methods and build models Transform your models into highly-effective code—in both Python and R This one-of-a-kind book will help you use predictive analytics, Python, and R to solve real business problems and drive real competitive advantage. You’ll master predictive analytics through realistic case studies, intuitive data visualizations, and up-to-date code for both Python and R—not complex math. Step by step, you’ll walk through defining problems, identifying data, crafting and optimizing models, writing effective Python and R code, interpreting results, and more. Each chapter focuses on one of today’s key applications for predictive analytics, delivering skills and knowledge to put models to work—and maximize their value. Thomas W. Miller, leader of Northwestern University’s pioneering program in predictive analytics, addresses everything you need to succeed: strategy and management, methods and models, and technology and code. If you’re new to predictive analytics, you’ll gain a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already working in the field, you’ll master powerful new skills. If you’re familiar with either Python or R, you’ll discover how these languages complement each other, enabling you to do even more. All data sets, extensive Python and R code, and additional examples available for download at http://www.ftpress.com/miller/ Python and R offer immense power in predictive analytics, data science, and big data. This book will help you leverage that power to solve real business problems, and drive real competitive advantage. Thomas W. Miller’s unique balanced approach combines business context and quantitative tools, illuminating each technique with carefully explained code for the latest versions of Python and R. If you’re new to predictive analytics, Miller gives you a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already a modeler, programmer, or manager, you’ll learn crucial skills you don’t already have. Using Python and R, Miller addresses multiple business challenges, including segmentation, brand positioning, product choice modeling, pricing research, finance, sports, text analytics, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis. He illuminates the use of cross-sectional data, time series, spatial, and spatio-temporal data. You’ll learn why each problem matters, what data are relevant, and how to explore the data you’ve identified. Miller guides you through conceptually modeling each data set with words and figures; and then modeling it again with realistic code that delivers actionable insights. You’ll walk through model construction, explanatory variable subset selection, and validation, mastering best practices for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. Miller employs data visualization and statistical graphics to help you explore data, present models, and evaluate performance. Appendices include five complete case studies, and a detailed primer on modern data science methods. Use Python and R to gain powerful, actionable, profitable insights about: Advertising and promotion Consumer preference and choice Market baskets and related purchases Economic forecasting Operations management Unstructured text and language Customer sentiment Brand and price Sports team performance And much more
Posted in Computers

Modeling Techniques in Predictive Analytics

Business Problems and Solutions with R, Revised and Expanded Edition

Author: Thomas W. Miller

Publisher: FT Press

ISBN: 0133886190

Category: Computers

Page: 384

View: 3964

To succeed with predictive analytics, you must understand it on three levels: Strategy and management Methods and models Technology and code This up-to-the-minute reference thoroughly covers all three categories. Now fully updated, this uniquely accessible book will help you use predictive analytics to solve real business problems and drive real competitive advantage. If you’re new to the discipline, it will give you the strong foundation you need to get accurate, actionable results. If you’re already a modeler, programmer, or manager, it will teach you crucial skills you don’t yet have. Unlike competitive books, this guide illuminates the discipline through realistic vignettes and intuitive data visualizations–not complex math. Thomas W. Miller, leader of Northwestern University’s pioneering program in predictive analytics, guides you through defining problems, identifying data, crafting and optimizing models, writing effective R code, interpreting results, and more. Every chapter focuses on one of today’s key applications for predictive analytics, delivering skills and knowledge to put models to work–and maximize their value. Reflecting extensive student and instructor feedback, this edition adds five classroom-tested case studies, updates all code for new versions of R, explains code behavior more clearly and completely, and covers modern data science methods even more effectively. All data sets, extensive R code, and additional examples available for download at http://www.ftpress.com/miller If you want to make the most of predictive analytics, data science, and big data, this is the book for you. Thomas W. Miller’s unique balanced approach combines business context and quantitative tools, appealing to managers, analysts, programmers, and students alike. Miller addresses multiple business cases and challenges, including segmentation, brand positioning, product choice modeling, pricing research, finance, sports, text analytics, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis. He illuminates the use of cross-sectional data, time series, spatial, and spatio-temporal data. You’ll learn why each problem matters, what data are relevant, and how to explore the data you’ve identified. Miller guides you through conceptually modeling each data set with words and figures; and then modeling it again with realistic R programs that deliver actionable insights. You’ll walk through model construction, explanatory variable subset selection, and validation, mastering best practices for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. Throughout, Miller employs data visualization and statistical graphics to help you explore data, present models, and evaluate performance. This edition adds five new case studies, updates all code for the newest versions of R, adds more commenting to clarify how the code works, and offers a more detailed and up-to-date primer on data science methods. Gain powerful, actionable, profitable insights about: Advertising and promotion Consumer preference and choice Market baskets and related purchases Economic forecasting Operations management Unstructured text and language Customer sentiment Brand and price Sports team performance And much more
Posted in Computers

Doing Statistical Mediation and Moderation

Author: Paul E. Jose

Publisher: Guilford Press

ISBN: 1462508235

Category: Psychology

Page: 336

View: 9950

Written in a friendly, conversational style, this book offers a hands-on approach to statistical mediation and moderation for both beginning researchers and those familiar with modeling. Starting with a gentle review of regression-based analysis, Paul Jose covers basic mediation and moderation techniques before moving on to advanced topics in multilevel modeling, structural equation modeling, and hybrid combinations, such as moderated mediation. User-friendly features include numerous graphs and carefully worked-through examples; "Helpful Suggestions" about procedures and pitfalls; "Knowledge Boxes" delving into special topics, such as dummy coding; and end-of-chapter exercises and problems (with answers). The companion website (www.guilford.com/jose-materials) provides downloadable data and syntax files for the book's examples and exercises, as well as links to Jose's online programs, MedGraph and ModGraph. Appendices present SPSS, Amos, and Mplus syntax for conducting the key types of analyses.
Posted in Psychology

Geschichte der Naturwissenschaften

I: Die Antike

Author: Olaf Breidbach

Publisher: Springer Spektrum

ISBN: 9783642418457

Category: Science

Page: 397

View: 9716

Die Grundlagen und Voraussetzungen unserer modernen Wissenschafts- und Wissenskonzeptionen wurden in der Antike gelegt. Dieser erste Band einer Geschichte der Naturwissenschaft macht das Gefüge der uns heute leitenden, uns ausrichtenden und auch der von uns verdrängten Konzeptionen in seinen wesentlichen historischen Schritten erkennbar. Stufen der Problembearbeitung und des Problemverstehens werden in ihren jeweils eigenen Horizonten beschrieben und in den daraus folgenden Anregungen und den dabei immer wieder neu eingestellten Rahmenbedingungen dargestellt. Die hier erzählte Genese unserer Wissenschaftskultur setzt mit den ersten Versuchen einer Systematisierung von Wissen ein, der Notation der Zahlen, und führt über den Vorderen Orient, Griechenland und Rom bis in die Spätantike.​
Posted in Science

Statistics for Nursing and Allied Health

Author: Stacey Beth Plichta,Laurel S. Garzon

Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

ISBN: 9780781754590

Category: Medical

Page: 420

View: 4311

This introductory textbook explores the role of research in health care and focuses in particular on the importance of organizing and describing research data using basic statistics. The goal of the text is to teach students how to analyze data and present the results of evidence-based data analysis. Based on the commonly-used SPSS software, a comprehensive range of statistical techniques—both parametric and non-parametric—are presented and explained. Examples are given from nursing, health administration, and health professions, followed by an opportunity for students to immediately practice the technique.
Posted in Medical

Regression Analysis

Author: Rudolf J. Freund,William J. Wilson,Ping Sa

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 0080522971

Category: Mathematics

Page: 480

View: 1378

Regression Analysis provides complete coverage of the classical methods of statistical analysis. It is designed to give students an understanding of the purpose of statistical analyses, to allow the student to determine, at least to some degree, the correct type of statistical analyses to be performed in a given situation, and have some appreciation of what constitutes good experimental design. Examples and exercises contain real data and graphical illustration for ease of interpretation Outputs from SAS 7, SPSS 7, Excel, and Minitab are used for illustration, but any major statistical software package will work equally well
Posted in Mathematics

Vergesst die Krise!

Warum wir jetzt Geld ausgeben müssen

Author: Paul Krugman

Publisher: Campus Verlag

ISBN: 3593417480

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 639

Deutschland hat die Krise nicht verstanden, sagt Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman. Sein neues Buch ist eine leidenschaftliche Anklage gegen die europäische und insbesondere die deutsche Sparpolitik. Er erklärt, dass Staaten, die reich sind an Ressourcen, Talent und Wissen - den wesentlichen Zutaten für Wohlstand und einen anständigen allgemeinen Lebensstandard -, in der jetzigen Lage nur durch Investitionen, also weitere Schulden auf Zukunftskurs steuern können. Eine schnelle und deutliche Erholung ist in greifbarer Nähe - einzig es fehlt die politische Weichenstellung. Krugmans Weckruf lautet: Wir sparen uns zu Tode! »Merkels Gegner und wie sie die Welt sehen« Die Zeit
Posted in Business & Economics

Leitfaden für Faule Eltern

Author: Tom Hodgkinson

Publisher: Kein & Aber AG

ISBN: 395403042X

Category: Family & Relationships

Page: 318

View: 3703

Kindererziehung gilt als mühselig, kompliziert und teuer. Straffe Stundenpläne, Leistungstests, teure Freizeitaktivitäten und jede Menge Kommerz bringen schon früh eine ungesunde Dosis Stress und Arbeitsethos in das Leben unserer Kinder. Zugleich haben die angestrengten Eltern paradoxerweise das Gefühl, dass sie noch mehr leisten müssten, um die Last der Elternschaft schultern und ihren Kindern etwas bieten zu können. Aber wo sind Kreativität, Spiel und Selbstvertrauen geblieben? In seinem Erziehungsratgeber der anderen Art zeigt Tom Hodgkinson neue Wege zu einer lustvollen Erziehung auf. Unabhängige Kinder und glückliche Eltern, darauf kommt es ihm an. Er fordert uns auf, den Kindern Verantwortung zu übertragen und den Dingen Ihren Lauf zu lassen, anstatt Freizeitspaß teuer einzukaufen. Hodgkinson ignoriert alle modernen Erziehungsratgeber, er lernt stattdessen aus eigenen Fehlern und befragt die großen Denker aus geistvolleren Zeiten, unter ihnen Rousseau, Locke und Lawrence. Und so ist »Leitfaden für faule Eltern« keine Bedienungsanleitung, sondern eine inspirierende Sammlung von Reflexionen über die Frage, wie wir gemeinsam mit unseren Kindern das Leben genießen können.
Posted in Family & Relationships

Financial Derivatives and the Globalization of Risk

Author: Edward LiPuma,Benjamin Lee

Publisher: Duke University Press

ISBN: 9780822334187

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 209

View: 9401

DIVCultural studies exploration of the implications of the circulation of increasingly abstract forms of capital in the contemporary global economy./div
Posted in Business & Economics