Political Demography

How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

Author: Jack A. Goldstone,Eric P. Kaufmann,Monica Duffy Toft

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199945969

Category: Political Science

Page: 342

View: 2679

The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. At a time when demographic changes - aging in the rich world, youth bulges in the developing world, ethnic and religious shifts, migration, and urbanization - are waxing as never before, this neglect is especially glaring and starkly contrasts with the enormous interest coming from policymakers and the media. "Ten years ago, [demography] was hardly on the radar screen," remarks Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, two contributors to this volume. "Today," they continue, "it dominates almost any discussion of America's long-term fiscal, economic, or foreign-policy direction." Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.
Posted in Political Science

Political Demography

How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

Author: Jack A. Goldstone,Eric Kauffman,Monica Duffy Toft

Publisher: Paradigm Pub

ISBN: 9781594519499

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 5256

The field of political demography - the politics of population change - is dramatically underrepresented in political science. With an ageing population in the rich world and youth bulges in the developing world this neglect is glaring.Demography is a crucial part of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of future decades. Political scientists need to understand the connections between demographic and political changes.This book fills the gap and provides scholars and policy makers with insights which can help to develop enlightened policies for the future.
Posted in Political Science

Political Demography

How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

Author: Jack A. Goldstone,Eric P. Kaufmann

Publisher: OUP USA

ISBN: 0199945969

Category: Social Science

Page: 342

View: 6679

Demography is the most predictable of the social sciences: children born in the last five years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or the developing world, political scientists urgently need to understand the tectonics of demography in order to grasp the full context of today's political developments. This book begins to fill the gap from a global and historical perspective and with the hope that scholars and policymakers will take its insights on board to develop enlightened policies for our collective future.
Posted in Social Science

Political Demography, Demographic Engineering

Author: Myron Weiner,Michael S. Teitelbaum

Publisher: Berghahn Books

ISBN: 9781571812544

Category: History

Page: 148

View: 7064

"Over the past decade, the impacts of demographic trends on international security and on peaceful relations between and within states have come to the fore in ways not seen since the aftermath of World War II. An evolving and more complex set of changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations has become the basis for a new look at the security effects of changes in the size, distribution, and composition of populations. This book is an attempt to lay out the new look, to take issue with some of the prevailing views on the political consequences of population change and to suggest where the concerns are realistic and where they are not."(From the Preface) This book not only offers a magisterial analysis of the political effects of the dramatic population changes that are taking place in countries all around the world, it also represents the testimony of one of the most distinguished scholars in the field of migration and population studies. Myron Weiner, former Professor of Political Science at MIT and Chair of the External Research Advisory Committee of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Michael S. Teitelbaum, a demographer, is Program Director at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation in New York.
Posted in History

The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America

Author: Eric P. KAUFMANN,Eric P Kaufmann

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674039386

Category: History

Page: 384

View: 8139

Posted in History

The Future Faces of War

Population and National Security

Author: Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba

Publisher: ABC-CLIO

ISBN: 031336494X

Category: History

Page: 233

View: 5764

This comprehensive and clear volume reveals the numerous ways demographic trends such as age structure, composition, and migration influence national security. * A short glossary pointing out definitions of commonly used demographic terms * An index to direct readers to particular trends or implications, such as youth bulge or civil conflict
Posted in History

Rethinking Ethnicity

Majority Groups and Dominant Minorities

Author: Eric P. Kaufmann

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1134376286

Category: Political Science

Page: 272

View: 6241

The impact of liberal globalization and multiculturalism means that nations are under pressure to transform their national identities from an ethnic to a civic mode. This has led, in many cases, to dominant ethnic decline, but also to its peripheral revival in the form of far right politics. At the same time, the growth of mass democracy and the decline of post-colonial and Cold War state unity in the developing world has opened the floodgates for assertions of ethnic dominance. This book investigates both tendencies and argues forcefully for the importance of dominant ethnicity in the contemporary world.
Posted in Political Science

Population Change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa

Beyond the Demographic Divide

Author: Koenraad Matthijs,Karel Neels,Christiane Timmerman,Jacques Haers

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317077857

Category: Social Science

Page: 330

View: 3188

Current demographic trends raise new questions, challenges and controversies. Comparing demographic trends in Europe and the NAME-region (North Africa and the Middle East), this book demonstrates how population change interacts with changing economic landscapes, social distinctions and political realities. A variety of drivers contribute to demographic change in the various regions and countries considered, such as family policies, economic realities, the impact of educational differentials and the attitudes towards marriage. On the macro-level the new trends are restructuring the age composition of populations and are reshaping the life courses of individuals and families. In turn, the impact demographic forces have on the organisation of labour markets, on fiscal policies, on the care of the elderly, on migration flows and on political changes can be quite radical. The volume provides food for thought for those who are looking for a nuanced perspective on the background and future perspectives of demographic developments in Europe, for a discussion of recent demographic and political realities in the NAME countries, and for those who analyse the effects of contrasting demographic regimes on migration flows to and migration politics in Europe. Chapter 1 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.tandfebooks.com/page/openaccess. It has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 license.
Posted in Social Science

Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?

Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century

Author: Eric Kaufmann

Publisher: Profile Books

ISBN: 1847651941

Category: Religion

Page: 330

View: 9775

Dawkins and Hitchens have convinced many western intellectuals that secularism is the way forward. But most people don't read their books before deciding whether to be religious. Instead, they inherit their faith from their parents, who often innoculate them against the elegant arguments of secularists. And what no one has noticed is that far from declining, the religious are expanding their share of the population: in fact, the more religious people are, the more children they have. The cumulative effect of immigration from religious countries, and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West. Not only will the religious eventually triumph over the non-religious, but it is those who are the most extreme in their beliefs who have the largest families. Within Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counterparts by mid-century. Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world, and their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel. Based on a wealth of demographic research, considering questions of multiculturalism and terrorism, Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises - and what this means for the future of western modernity.
Posted in Religion

The Rise of the West

A History of the Human Community

Author: William H. McNeill

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226561615

Category: History

Page: 860

View: 5233

The Rise of the West, winner of the National Book Award for history in 1964, is famous for its ambitious scope and intellectual rigor. In it, McNeill challenges the Spengler-Toynbee view that a number of separate civilizations pursued essentially independent careers, and argues instead that human cultures interacted at every stage of their history. The author suggests that from the Neolithic beginnings of grain agriculture to the present major social changes in all parts of the world were triggered by new or newly important foreign stimuli, and he presents a persuasive narrative of world history to support this claim. In a retrospective essay titled "The Rise of the West after Twenty-five Years," McNeill shows how his book was shaped by the time and place in which it was written (1954-63). He discusses how historiography subsequently developed and suggests how his portrait of the world's past in The Rise of the West should be revised to reflect these changes. "This is not only the most learned and the most intelligent, it is also the most stimulating and fascinating book that has ever set out to recount and explain the whole history of mankind. . . . To read it is a great experience. It leaves echoes to reverberate, and seeds to germinate in the mind."—H. R. Trevor-Roper, New York Times Book Review
Posted in History

The Politics of Immigration

Partisanship, Changing Demographics, and the American National Identity

Author: Tom K. Wong

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0190235306

Category:

Page: 264

View: 6153

Immigration has been deeply woven into the fabric of American nation building since the founding of the Republic. Indeed, immigrants have played an integral role in American history, but they are also intricately tied to America's present and will feature prominently in America's future. Immigration can shape a nation. Consequently, immigration policy can maintain, replenish, and even reshape it. Immigration policy debates are thus seldom just about who to let in and how many, as a nation's immigration policies can define its identity. This is what helps breathe fire into the politics of immigration. Against this backdrop, political parties promote their own narratives about what the immigration policies of a nation of immigrants should be while undermining the contrasting narratives of political opponents. Racial and ethnic groups mobilize for political inclusion as immigration increases their numbers, but are often confronted by the counteractive mobilization of nativist groups. Legislators calibrate their positions on immigration by weighing traditional electoral concerns against a new demographic normal that is reshaping the American electorate. At stake are not just what our immigration policies will be, but also what America can become. What are the determinants of immigration policymaking in the United States? The Politics of Immigration focuses the analytical lens on the electoral incentives that legislators in Congress have to support or oppose immigration policy reforms at the federal level. In contrast to previous arguments, Tom K. Wong argues that contemporary immigration politics in the United States can be characterized by three underlying features: the entrenchment of partisan divides among legislators on the issue of immigration, the political implications of the demographic changes that are reshaping the American electorate, and how these changes are creating new opportunities to define what it means to be an American in a period of unprecedented national origins, racial and ethnic, and cultural diversity.
Posted in

Latino America

How America's Most Dynamic Population is Poised to Transform the Politics of the Nation

Author: Matt Barreto,Gary M. Segura

Publisher: PublicAffairs

ISBN: 1610395026

Category: Social Science

Page: 304

View: 1128

Sometime in April 2014, somewhere in a hospital in California, a Latino child tipped the demographic scales as Latinos displaced non-Hispanic whites as the largest racial/ethnic group in the state. So, one-hundred-sixty-six years after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo brought the Mexican province of Alta California into the United States, Latinos once again became the largest population in the state. Surprised? Texas will make the same transition sometime before 2020. When that happens, America's two most populous states, carrying the largest number of Electoral College votes, will be Latino. New Mexico is already there. New York, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are shifting rapidly. Latino populations since 2000 have doubled in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Dakota. The US is undergoing a substantial and irreversible shift in its identity. So, too, are the Latinos who make up these populations. Matt Barreto and Gary M. Segura are the country's preeminent experts in the shape, disposition, and mood of Latino America. They show the extent to which Latinos have already transformed the US politically and socially, and how Latino Americans are the most buoyant and dynamic ethnic and racial group, often in quite counterintuitive ways. Latinos' optimism, strength of family, belief in the constructive role of government, and resilience have the imminent potential to reshape the political and partisan landscape for a generation and drive the outcome of elections as soon as 2016.
Posted in Social Science

Germany's New Security Demographics

Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging

Author: Wenke Apt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9400769644

Category: Social Science

Page: 217

View: 302

Military recruitment will become more difficult in times of demographic aging. The question arises whether demographic change will constrain the capacity of aging states like Germany to conduct foreign policy and pursue their national security interests. Since contemporary military operations still display a strong human element, particular scrutiny is given to the empirical analysis of the determinants of military propensity and military service among youth. An additional human capital projection until 2030 illustrates how the decline in the youth population will interact with trends in educational attainment and adolescent health to further complicate military recruitment in the future. A concluding review of recruiting practices in other NATO countries provides insight in best-practice policy options to reduce the military’s sensitivity to demographic change. Following this approach, the book gives prominence to a topic that has thus far been under-represented in the greater discussion of demographic change today, namely the demographic impact on international affairs and strategic calculations.
Posted in Social Science

World Population Policies

Their Origin, Evolution, and Impact

Author: John F. May

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9400728360

Category: Social Science

Page: 340

View: 9802

This book examines the history behind the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of population policies in the more developed, the less developed, and the least developed countries from 1950 until today, as well as their future prospects. It links population policies with the theories of the demographic, epidemiological, and migratory transitions. It begins by summarizing the demographic situation around the world, with an emphasis on population policies and their underlying theories. Then, it reviews the early efforts to reduce mortality and fertility in the developing countries. This is followed by a description of the internationalization of the debate on population issues and the transformation of these programs into more formal population policies, particularly in the developing countries. The book reviews also the situation of the developed countries and their specific challenges – sub-replacement fertility, population aging, and immigration – and examines the effectiveness of population policies. It also explores the way forward and future prospects for population policies over the next decades. The book provides numerous concrete examples from all over the world, and show how population policies are actually implemented and what have been their successes as well as their constraints. Above all, the book highlights the importance of understanding underlying demographic trends when assessing the development prospects of any country. The book is recommended for not only demographers, social scientists, and policymakers but also economists and political scientists who are interested in social and demographic change around the world. Demography students and researchers who are interested in applying knowledge on population trends and prospects in designing and evaluating public policies will find this an invaluable reference work.
Posted in Social Science

人口から見た安全保障

冷戦後の内戦と人口

Author: Richard Paul Cincotta,Robert Engelman,Daniele Anastasion

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781889735481

Category: Social Science

Page: 101

View: 8604

Posted in Social Science

Securing the Peace

The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars

Author: Monica Duffy Toft

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 1400831997

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

View: 9244

Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term. Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector--the police and military--and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow. An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war terminations, Securing the Peace will interest all those concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.
Posted in Political Science

White Backlash

Immigration, Race, and American Politics

Author: Marisa Abrajano,Zoltan L. Hajnal

Publisher: Princeton University Press

ISBN: 0691176191

Category: Political Science

Page: 256

View: 3112

White Backlash provides an authoritative assessment of how immigration is reshaping the politics of the nation. Using an array of data and analysis, Marisa Abrajano and Zoltan Hajnal show that fears about immigration fundamentally influence white Americans' core political identities, policy preferences, and electoral choices, and that these concerns are at the heart of a large-scale defection of whites from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Abrajano and Hajnal demonstrate that this political backlash has disquieting implications for the future of race relations in America. White Americans' concerns about Latinos and immigration have led to support for policies that are less generous and more punitive and that conflict with the preferences of much of the immigrant population. America's growing racial and ethnic diversity is leading to a greater racial divide in politics. As whites move to the right of the political spectrum, racial and ethnic minorities generally support the left. Racial divisions in partisanship and voting, as the authors indicate, now outweigh divisions by class, age, gender, and other demographic measures. White Backlash raises critical questions and concerns about how political beliefs and future elections will change the fate of America's immigrants and minorities, and their relationship with the rest of the nation.
Posted in Political Science

Whither the Child?

Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility

Author: Eric P. Kaufmann,W. Bradford Wilcox

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317249119

Category: Social Science

Page: 256

View: 1562

Birth rates are falling and fertility rates are well below replacement levels. At the same time, the economic crisis has forced governments to scale back public spending, reduce child support, and raise the retirement age, causing immense social conflict. Taking a step outside the disciplinary comfort zone, Whither the Child? asks how demography affects individuals and society. What does it feel like to live in a low fertility world? What are the consequences? Is there even a problem - economically, culturally and morally? No other book confronts so many dimensions of the low fertility issue and none engage with the thorny issues of child psychology, parenting, family, and social policy that are tackled head-on here.
Posted in Social Science

Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World

Population Change and State Breakdown in England, France, Turkey, and China,1600-1850; 25th Anniversary Edition

Author: Jack A. Goldstone

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1315408600

Category: Political Science

Page: 646

View: 1644

What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Jack Goldstone shows the important role of population changes, youth bulges, urbanization, elite divisions, and fiscal crises in creating major political crises. Goldstone shows how state breakdowns in both western monarchies and Asian empires followed the same patterns, triggered when inflexible political, economic, and social institutions were overwhelmed by cumulative changes in population structure that collided with popular aspirations and state-elite relations. Examining the great revolutions of Europe—the English and French Revolutions—and the great rebellions of Asia, which shattered dynasties in Ottoman Turkey, China, and Japan, he shows how long cycles of revolutionary crises and stability similarly shaped politics in Europe and Asia, but led to different outcomes. In this 25th anniversary edition, Goldstone reflects on the history of revolutions in the last twenty-five years, from the Philippines and other color revolutions to the Arab Uprisings and the rise of the Islamic State. In a new introduction, he re-examines his pioneering look at the role of population changes—such as rising youth cohorts, urbanization, shifting elite mobility––as continuing causal factors of revolutions and rebellions. The new concluding chapter updates his major theory and looks to the future of revolutions in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.
Posted in Political Science

The Orange Order

A Contemporary Northern Irish History

Author: Eric P. Kaufmann

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780199208487

Category: History

Page: 373

View: 7151

The first systematic social history of the Orange Order. Based on unprecedented access to the Order's archives, the book charts the Order's path from the peak of its influence, in the early 1960s, to its present crisis, and argues that the traditional Unionism of the past is giving way to a more militant form which is winning the hearts of the younger generation.
Posted in History