Bayesian Theory

Author: José M. Bernardo,Adrian F. M. Smith

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 047031771X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 608

View: 434

This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics
Posted in Mathematics

Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis

Author: Clair L. Alston,Kerrie L. Mengersen,Anthony N. Pettitt

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1118394321

Category: Mathematics

Page: 504

View: 5164

Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.
Posted in Mathematics

Differentialgeometrie von Kurven und Flächen

Author: Manfredo P. do Carmo

Publisher: Springer-Verlag

ISBN: 3322850722

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 263

View: 4748

Inhalt: Kurven - Reguläre Flächen - Die Geometrie der Gauß-Abbildung - Die innere Geometrie von Flächen - Anhang
Posted in Technology & Engineering

Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics

Author: John Geweke

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0471744727

Category: Mathematics

Page: 300

View: 1924

Tools to improve decision making in an imperfect world This publication provides readers with a thorough understanding of Bayesian analysis that is grounded in the theory of inference and optimal decision making. Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics provides readers with state-of-the-art simulation methods and models that are used to solve complex real-world problems. Armed with a strong foundation in both theory and practical problem-solving tools, readers discover how to optimize decision making when faced with problems that involve limited or imperfect data. The book begins by examining the theoretical and mathematical foundations of Bayesian statistics to help readers understand how and why it is used in problem solving. The author then describes how modern simulation methods make Bayesian approaches practical using widely available mathematical applications software. In addition, the author details how models can be applied to specific problems, including: * Linear models and policy choices * Modeling with latent variables and missing data * Time series models and prediction * Comparison and evaluation of models The publication has been developed and fine- tuned through a decade of classroom experience, and readers will find the author's approach very engaging and accessible. There are nearly 200 examples and exercises to help readers see how effective use of Bayesian statistics enables them to make optimal decisions. MATLAB? and R computer programs are integrated throughout the book. An accompanying Web site provides readers with computer code for many examples and datasets. This publication is tailored for research professionals who use econometrics and similar statistical methods in their work. With its emphasis on practical problem solving and extensive use of examples and exercises, this is also an excellent textbook for graduate-level students in a broad range of fields, including economics, statistics, the social sciences, business, and public policy.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayesian statistics

principles, models, and applications

Author: S. James Press

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc


Category: Mathematics

Page: 237

View: 9575

An introduction to Bayesian statistics, with emphasis on interpretation of theory, and application of Bayesian ideas to practical problems. First part covers basic issues and principles, such as subjective probability, Bayesian inference and decision making, the likelihood principle, predictivism, and numerical methods of approximating posterior distributions, and includes a listing of Bayesian computer programs. Second part is devoted to models and applications, including univariate and multivariate regression models, the general linear model, Bayesian classification and discrimination, and a case study of how disputed authorship of some of the Federalist Papers was resolved via Bayesian analysis. Includes biographical material on Thomas Bayes, and a reproduction of Bayes's original essay. Contains exercises.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayes Linear Statistics, Theory and Methods

Author: Michael Goldstein,David Wooff

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470065679

Category: Mathematics

Page: 536

View: 8884

Bayesian methods combine information available from data with any prior information available from expert knowledge. The Bayes linear approach follows this path, offering a quantitative structure for expressing beliefs, and systematic methods for adjusting these beliefs, given observational data. The methodology differs from the full Bayesian methodology in that it establishes simpler approaches to belief specification and analysis based around expectation judgements. Bayes Linear Statistics presents an authoritative account of this approach, explaining the foundations, theory, methodology, and practicalities of this important field. The text provides a thorough coverage of Bayes linear analysis, from the development of the basic language to the collection of algebraic results needed for efficient implementation, with detailed practical examples. The book covers: The importance of partial prior specifications for complex problems where it is difficult to supply a meaningful full prior probability specification. Simple ways to use partial prior specifications to adjust beliefs, given observations. Interpretative and diagnostic tools to display the implications of collections of belief statements, and to make stringent comparisons between expected and actual observations. General approaches to statistical modelling based upon partial exchangeability judgements. Bayes linear graphical models to represent and display partial belief specifications, organize computations, and display the results of analyses. Bayes Linear Statistics is essential reading for all statisticians concerned with the theory and practice of Bayesian methods. There is an accompanying website hosting free software and guides to the calculations within the book.
Posted in Mathematics

Subjective and Objective Bayesian Statistics

Principles, Models, and Applications

Author: S. James Press

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470317949

Category: Mathematics

Page: 600

View: 3818

Shorter, more concise chapters provide flexible coverage of the subject. Expanded coverage includes: uncertainty and randomness, prior distributions, predictivism, estimation, analysis of variance, and classification and imaging. Includes topics not covered in other books, such as the de Finetti Transform. Author S. James Press is the modern guru of Bayesian statistics.
Posted in Mathematics

Dirichlet and Related Distributions

Theory, Methods and Applications

Author: Kai Wang Ng,Guo-Liang Tian,Man-Lai Tang

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781119998419

Category: Mathematics

Page: 336

View: 3972

The Dirichlet distribution appears in many areas of application, which include modelling of compositional data, Bayesian analysis, statistical genetics, and nonparametric inference. This book provides a comprehensive review of the Dirichlet distribution and two extended versions, the Grouped Dirichlet Distribution (GDD) and the Nested Dirichlet Distribution (NDD), arising from likelihood and Bayesian analysis of incomplete categorical data and survey data with non-response. The theoretical properties and applications are also reviewed in detail for other related distributions, such as the inverted Dirichlet distribution, Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, the truncated Dirichlet distribution, the generalized Dirichlet distribution, Hyper-Dirichlet distribution, scaled Dirichlet distribution, mixed Dirichlet distribution, Liouville distribution, and the generalized Liouville distribution. Key Features: Presents many of the results and applications that are scattered throughout the literature in one single volume. Looks at the most recent results such as survival function and characteristic function for the uniform distributions over the hyper-plane and simplex; distribution for linear function of Dirichlet components; estimation via the expectation-maximization gradient algorithm and application; etc. Likelihood and Bayesian analyses of incomplete categorical data by using GDD, NDD, and the generalized Dirichlet distribution are illustrated in detail through the EM algorithm and data augmentation structure. Presents a systematic exposition of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution for multinomial data with extra variation which cannot be handled by the multinomial distribution. S-plus/R codes are featured along with practical examples illustrating the methods. Practitioners and researchers working in areas such as medical science, biological science and social science will benefit from this book.
Posted in Mathematics

Aspects of Statistical Inference

Author: A. H. Welsh

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471115915

Category: Mathematics

Page: 451

View: 546

Relevant, concrete, and thorough—the essential data-basedtext on statistical inference The ability to formulate abstract concepts and draw conclusionsfrom data is fundamental to mastering statistics. Aspects ofStatistical Inference equips advanced undergraduate and graduatestudents with a comprehensive grounding in statistical inference,including nonstandard topics such as robustness, randomization, andfinite population inference. A. H. Welsh goes beyond the standard texts and expertlysynthesizes broad, critical theory with concrete data and relevanttopics. The text follows a historical framework, uses real-datasets and statistical graphics, and treats multiparameter problems,yet is ultimately about the concepts themselves. Written with clarity and depth, Aspects of StatisticalInference: Provides a theoretical and historical grounding in statisticalinference that considers Bayesian, fiducial, likelihood, andfrequentist approaches Illustrates methods with real-data sets on diabeticretinopathy, the pharmacological effects of caffeine, stellarvelocity, and industrial experiments Considers multiparameter problems Develops large sample approximations and shows how to usethem Presents the philosophy and application of robustnesstheory Highlights the central role of randomization in statistics Uses simple proofs to illuminate foundational concepts Contains an appendix of useful facts concerning expansions,matrices, integrals, and distribution theory Here is the ultimate data-based text for comparing andpresenting the latest approaches to statistical inference.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayesian Analysis in Statistics and Econometrics

Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner

Author: Donald A. Berry

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780471118565

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 577

View: 759

This book is a definitive work that captures the current state of knowledge of Bayesian Analysis in Statistics and Econometrics and attempts to move it forward. It covers such topics as foundations, forecasting inferential matters, regression, computation and applications.
Posted in Business & Economics

Bayesian Networks

An Introduction

Author: Timo Koski,John Noble

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119964954

Category: Mathematics

Page: 366

View: 662

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications. A detailed description of learning algorithms and Conditional Gaussian Distributions using Junction Tree methods. A discussion of Pearl's intervention calculus, with an introduction to the notion of see and do conditioning. All concepts are clearly defined and illustrated with examples and exercises. Solutions are provided online. This book will prove a valuable resource for postgraduate students of statistics, computer engineering, mathematics, data mining, artificial intelligence, and biology. Researchers and users of comparable modelling or statistical techniques such as neural networks will also find this book of interest.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayesian Theory and Applications

Author: David A. Stephens

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199695601

Category: Mathematics

Page: 702

View: 1866

This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.
Posted in Mathematics

Bayesian Statistical Modelling

Author: Peter Congdon

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470035935

Category: Mathematics

Page: 596

View: 2307

Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology
Posted in Mathematics


Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Author: Nick Bostrom

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191666831

Category: Computers

Page: 272

View: 6099

The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence. This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.
Posted in Computers

Bayesian Models for Categorical Data

Author: Peter Congdon

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470092386

Category: Mathematics

Page: 446

View: 4840

The use of Bayesian methods for the analysis of data has grown substantially in areas as diverse as applied statistics, psychology, economics and medical science. Bayesian Methods for Categorical Data sets out to demystify modern Bayesian methods, making them accessible to students and researchers alike. Emphasizing the use of statistical computing and applied data analysis, this book provides a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian methods of categorical outcomes. * Reviews recent Bayesian methodology for categorical outcomes (binary, count and multinomial data). * Considers missing data models techniques and non-standard models (ZIP and negative binomial). * Evaluates time series and spatio-temporal models for discrete data. * Features discussion of univariate and multivariate techniques. * Provides a set of downloadable worked examples with documented WinBUGS code, available from an ftp site. The author's previous 2 bestselling titles provided a comprehensive introduction to the theory and application of Bayesian models. Bayesian Models for Categorical Data continues to build upon this foundation by developing their application to categorical, or discrete data - one of the most common types of data available. The author's clear and logical approach makes the book accessible to a wide range of students and practitioners, including those dealing with categorical data in medicine, sociology, psychology and epidemiology.
Posted in Mathematics

Advertising Management

Author: Donald W Jugenheimer,Larry D Kelley,Fogarty Klein Monroe

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 1317477642

Category: Antiques & Collectibles

Page: 288

View: 1379

This comprehensive book is designed to serve as a primary text for the Advertising Management course that follows the more general Principles of Advertising course. It can stand alone, or, for instructors who prefer a case-based approach, it can be adopted together with "Cases in Advertising Management" (978-0-7656-2261-7) by the same authors. "Advertising Management" covers a full range of topics for a semester-long course, including financial management, business planning, strategic planning, budgeting, human resource management, ethics, and managing change. There is even a unique section on 'managing yourself' and your own career in advertising. The text includes plentiful figures, tables, and sidebars, and each chapter concludes with useful learning objectives, summaries, discussion questions, and additional resources.
Posted in Antiques & Collectibles

Bayesian Statistics and Marketing

Author: Peter E. Rossi,Greg M. Allenby,Rob McCulloch

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470863684

Category: Mathematics

Page: 368

View: 2386

The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing describes the basic advantages of the Bayesian approach, detailing the nature of the computational revolution. Examples contained include household and consumer panel data on product purchases and survey data, demand models based on micro-economic theory and random effect models used to pool data among respondents. The book also discusses the theory and practical use of MCMC methods. Written by the leading experts in the field, this unique book: Presents a unified treatment of Bayesian methods in marketing, with common notation and algorithms for estimating the models. Provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian methods. Includes case studies drawn from the authors’ recent research to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be extended to apply to many important marketing problems. Is accompanied by an R package, bayesm, which implements all of the models and methods in the book and includes many datasets. In addition the book’s website hosts datasets and R code for the case studies. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing provides a platform for researchers in marketing to analyse their data with state-of-the-art methods and develop new models of consumer behaviour. It provides a unified reference for cutting-edge marketing researchers, as well as an invaluable guide to this growing area for both graduate students and professors, alike.
Posted in Mathematics

An introduction to probability theory and mathematical statistics

Author: V. K. Rohatgi

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc


Category: Mathematics

Page: 684

View: 3403

Probability; Random variables and their probability distributions; Moments and generating functions; Random vectors; Some special distributions; Limit theorems; Sample moments and their distributions; The theory of point estimation; Neyman-Pearson theory of testing of hypotheses; Some further results on hypotheses testing; Confidence estimation; The general linear hypothesis; Nonparametric statistical inference; Sequential statistical inference.
Posted in Mathematics

Statistics of Extremes

Theory and Applications

Author: Jan Beirlant,Yuri Goegebeur,Johan Segers,Jozef Teugels

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 0470012374

Category: Mathematics

Page: 522

View: 3832

Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.
Posted in Mathematics