Discover how to use Bayes' Theorem for real world applications like weather prediction, criminal investigation, blackjack games, and countless others! Picture this... You've been feeling sick for a couple days. You have a job interview on Thursday. Today is Monday, and you want to make sure you're healthy by Thursday...but you can't afford the time or cost of seeing a doctor before then. What are the odds of being up and running by Thursday? Do they get better if you've just started a new health kick? Or do they stay the same? Or perhaps... ...you notice your good ol' dog Spike walking clumsily and think he may be going blind. However you can't take him to a vet immediately...but you still want to know what the odds are that something's wrong with his eyes. So how do you determine this? These questions and countless others can be better answered when you apply Bayes' Theorem. To simplify it, Bayes' Theorem is the method by which you use to determine the probability of an event based on conditions that may be related to an event. So if you want to determine if your dog is sick and you know his breed is a golden retriever...well you could possibly use that information to assess the likely odds of him being sick! In this guide you'll see example after example of Bayes' Theorem being put into practice. You'll also see how each conclusion is arrived at with summation notation and basic equations. BUT...the purpose of this book isn't just to throw equations at you. It's to help you get an intuitive feel for the probability of an outcome without having to plug in all the numbers. I made sure this book wasn't filled with too much jargon or advanced notation. In fact, this book can be used if...1. You're just a lay person interested in learning how to "predict" the chances of events and gain deeper insight to the world around us2. You're a student who needs to learn about Bayes' Theorem quickly and easily3. You're a teacher or educator looking to advance or brush up on your existing knowledge of Bayes' Theorem I encourage you to download 'Bayes Theorem' so you can make more informed approximations of how events will play out. Plus, when you download "Bayes Theorem", you'll also discover: How to solve unobvious questions How to do your own genetic testing (find out if you're more prone to certain types of ailments) Why a smoker and non-smoker may have equal chances of developing chronic bronchitis How companies can use Bayes' Theorem to manipulate and spew propaganda What the chances are of someone becoming addicted to pills How to determine if a suspected criminal is more likely innocent or guilty The proper mathematical equations and notation to use-and guided explanations of each So download 'Bayes Theorem' today and enhance your statistical knowledge on the world and how things work
The Beginner's Guide to Understanding Bayes Theorem and It's Applications
Author: Logan Styles
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Bayes theorem describes the probability of an event based on other information that might be relevant. Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.
Author: Scott Hartshorn
Publisher: Lulu Press, Inc
Bayes Theorem: Bayes Theorem Examples: A Step by Step Guide For Beginners This book describes Bayes' Theorem in the simplest way possible in layman's language. This book does not contain complex formulas, jargon and hard-to-understand mathematical processes. Some unique examples like US presidential election (Trump vs Hilary!), picnic day, job interview, accident eyewitness reliability, breathalyzer test has been described and solved elaborately in step by step manner in this booklet. After going through this book, you will have a better understanding on what Bayes' Theorem is, when & where you can apply it and how it can help you deduce the most logical conclusions. From Amazon search results to dating, from spam filtering from email to search & rescue, from finding who might win the election to finding a missing plane - Bayes' has been used in real life scenario for many years. Bayes' Theorem is part of syllabus for science and business students. It is one the most basic theorems of statistics. But most teaching techniques of this theorem is too much analytical. Very little intuitive and visual aids is used to demonstrate this theorem in practice. This makes it very hard to grasp the core concept of Bayes' theorem and understand the applicability. This guide addresses this issue and introduces some visual examples and step by step guidelines to solve real life problems. There easy to follow steps will help you apply Bayes' theorem quickly in real life.
Bayes Theorem Made Easy for Beginners with Step by Step Guidelines to Solve Any Problem
Author: K. A. Muhith
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Publisher: Yale University Press
This book is a discussion about the Bayes' Theorem. The first part of the book helps you understand what Bayes' Theorem is and the areas in which it can be applied. The derivation of Bayes' Theorem is also discussed, so you will know the various steps it takes for you to derive Bayes' Theorem. Some basic examples are then given to help you understand how you can solve them by use of Bayes' Theorem. These examples have been picked from a wide range of areas, and they are all based on the concept of conditional probability. This is a situation in which you are given the evidence and you are expected to calculate or determine the probability of a certain event occurring, or in other words, if an event A has occurred, what is the probability that event B will occur. The application of Bayes' Theorem in drug and medical tests is then discussed in detail. You will learn how to determine the probability of individuals being users of a certain drug or non-users of that drug. You will also learn how to determine the probability of individuals having certain conditions. The book also discusses the application of Bayes' Theorem when you are rolling dice. You will learn how to apply this Theorem to determine the probability of getting Heads and Tails. The book also helps you in determining if a coin toss is fair or not based on the outcome after it has occurred. Here is a preview of what you'll learn: - What is Bayes Theorem? - Basic Examples - Drug and Medical Tests - Dice and Rolls - Is the Coin Fair?
Visual Book for Beginners
Author: Robert Collins
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.
A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Analysis
Author: James V. Stone
Publisher: Sebtel Press
Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory
The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.
Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't
Author: Nate Silver
Category: Business & Economics
If you know how to program with Python and also know a little about probability, you’re ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical notation, and use discrete probability distributions instead of continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer, and you’ll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but not many resources are available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen Downey, this book’s computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your existing programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, M&Ms, Dungeons & Dragons dice, paintball, and hockey Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems, such as interpreting SAT scores, simulating kidney tumors, and modeling the human microbiome.
Author: Allen Downey
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Learn how to apply test-driven development (TDD) to machine-learning algorithms—and catch mistakes that could sink your analysis. In this practical guide, author Matthew Kirk takes you through the principles of TDD and machine learning, and shows you how to apply TDD to several machine-learning algorithms, including Naive Bayesian classifiers and Neural Networks. Machine-learning algorithms often have tests baked in, but they can’t account for human errors in coding. Rather than blindly rely on machine-learning results as many researchers have, you can mitigate the risk of errors with TDD and write clean, stable machine-learning code. If you’re familiar with Ruby 2.1, you’re ready to start. Apply TDD to write and run tests before you start coding Learn the best uses and tradeoffs of eight machine learning algorithms Use real-world examples to test each algorithm through engaging, hands-on exercises Understand the similarities between TDD and the scientific method for validating solutions Be aware of the risks of machine learning, such as underfitting and overfitting data Explore techniques for improving your machine-learning models or data extraction
A Test-Driven Approach
Author: Matthew Kirk
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference
Author: Cameron Davidson-Pilon
Publisher: Addison-Wesley Professional
This Bayesian modeling book is intended for practitioners and applied statisticians looking for a self-contained entry to computational Bayesian statistics. Focusing on standard statistical models and backed up by discussed real datasets available from the book website, it provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical justifications. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models. Similarly, computational details are worked out to lead the reader towards an effective programming of the methods given in the book.
Author: Jean-Michel Marin,Christian Robert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
The standard rules of probability can be interpreted as uniquely valid principles in logic. In this book, E. T. Jaynes dispels the imaginary distinction between 'probability theory' and 'statistical inference', leaving a logical unity and simplicity, which provides greater technical power and flexibility in applications. This book goes beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, viewing the subject in a wider context. New results are discussed, along with applications of probability theory to a wide variety of problems in physics, mathematics, economics, chemistry and biology. It contains many exercises and problems, and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate level courses involving data analysis. The material is aimed at readers who are already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher. The book will be of interest to scientists working in any area where inference from incomplete information is necessary.
The Logic of Science
Author: E. T. Jaynes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan
Author: Richard McElreath
Publisher: CRC Press
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Author: Andrew Gelman,John B. Carlin,Hal S. Stern,David B. Dunson,Aki Vehtari,Donald B. Rubin
Publisher: CRC Press
Author: Matthew J. Hassett,Donald Stewart
Publisher: ACTEX Publications
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines priorbeliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posteriorbeliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasingemphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such asvariational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximateBayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo(RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which theBayesian approach to statistics develops as well as how itcontrasts with the conventional approach. The theory is built upstep by step, and important notions such as sufficiency are broughtout of a discussion of the salient features of specificexamples. This edition: Includes expanded coverage of Gibbs sampling, including morenumerical examples and treatments of OpenBUGS, R2WinBUGS andR2OpenBUGS. Presents significant new material on recent techniques such asBayesian importance sampling, variational Bayes, ApproximateBayesian Computation (ABC) and Reversible Jump Markov Chain MonteCarlo (RJMCMC). Provides extensive examples throughout the book to complementthe theory presented. Accompanied by a supporting website featuring new material andsolutions. More and more students are realizing that they need to learnBayesian statistics to meet their academic and professional goals.This book is best suited for use as a main text in courses onBayesian statistics for third and fourth year undergraduates andpostgraduate students.
Author: Peter M. Lee
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
"Using the mathematician's method of analyzing life and exposing the hard-won insights of the academic community to the layman, minus the jargon ... Ellenberg pulls from history as well as from the latest theoretical developments to provide those not trained in math with the knowledge they need"--
The Power of Mathematical Thinking
Author: Jordan Ellenberg
Category: Business & Economics
This in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole proposes Bayes’s Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. The author demonstrates that valid historical methods—not only in the study of Christian origins but in any historical study—can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes’s Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned. Writing with thoroughness and clarity, the author explains Bayes’s Theorem in terms that are easily understandable to professional historians and laypeople alike, employing nothing more than well-known primary school math. He then explores precisely how the theorem can be applied to history and addresses numerous challenges to and criticisms of its use in testing or justifying the conclusions that historians make about the important persons and events of the past. The traditional and established methods of historians are analyzed using the theorem, as well as all the major "historicity criteria" employed in the latest quest to establish the historicity of Jesus. The author demonstrates not only the deficiencies of these approaches but also ways to rehabilitate them using Bayes’s Theorem. Anyone with an interest in historical methods, how historical knowledge can be justified, new applications of Bayes’s Theorem, or the study of the historical Jesus will find this book to be essential reading. From the Hardcover edition.
Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus
Author: Richard C. Carrier
Publisher: Prometheus Books